Memory
DRAM, NAND flash, eMMC, SSD and related memory products.
Lead-time range, Dec 2025 – Jul 2026
- 1January 15, 2026 — US Section 232 tariff: 25% on advanced logic imports.25% duty on advanced processors above compute/bandwidth thresholds takes effect; pricing pressure and country-of-origin re-engineering.source
Monthly status
Why it's moving
HBM wafer starts for AI accelerators keep displacing commodity DRAM and NAND output, and suppliers are filling well under requested volumes. With production concentrated at Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, there is no second source to absorb the displacement. Contract pricing has risen sharply quarter over quarter and spot remains above contract — the classic shortage signature. Nothing in the capacity pipeline changes this picture before 2027.
AI demand pull
AI infrastructure build-out is absorbing wafer capacity and components — HBM output displaces commodity DRAM/NAND, and AI servers pull power ICs, MLCCs, high-speed interconnect and optical modules.Avnet: The 2026 memory shortage and the AI supercycle (2026-01)
Supplier allocation
Suppliers are rationing output below requested volumes; published lead times understate effective availability when parts are on allocation.IDC: Global memory shortage crisis market analysis (2026)
Korea concentration
DRAM and HBM production is concentrated in two Korean suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix) plus Micron; capacity or policy shifts there move the whole memory market.Wikipedia: 2025–present global memory supply shortage (2026)
Analyst read as of July 2026. Facts cited via the driver tags above; the interpretation is the analyst's own.
Subcategories, July 2026
| Subcategory | Status | Lead time | Trend | Pricing | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAM | 4 · Critical | 30–52+ wks | rising | rising | Broad allocation; DDR4 hit hardest as capacity shifts to DDR5/HBM. |
| eMMC / SSD | 4 · Critical | 26–52 wks | rising | rising | Select eMMC densities reaching EOL; revisit memory-dependent BOMs. |
Month by month
- Jul 20264 · CriticalCritical every month this year. Allocation and 26 to 52+ week ranges never eased.
- Jun 20264 · CriticalAllocation and price pressure continue; no easing signals.
- May 20264 · Critical26 to 52 weeks; allocation continues.
- Apr 20264 · CriticalBroad allocation; DRAM, eMMC, SSD at 26 to 52 weeks. Pricing up 80–90% QoQ on AI demand.
- Mar 20264 · CriticalBroad allocation across DRAM, eMMC, SSD with significant cost increases; select eMMC densities reaching EOL.
- Feb 20264 · CriticalVolatile: significant cost increases; allocation returning across PC DRAM, mobile RAM, eMMC, SSDs — lock in supply if you rely on these.
- Jan 20264 · CriticalStretching lead times and upward pricing; allocation risk returning for PC DRAM, mobile RAM, eMMC and SSDs.
- Dec 20254 · CriticalSevere allocation: DDR4 and LPDDR4 prices doubled; eMMC availability critically restricted.
Data table
| Month | Status | Lead time | Pulse Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 4 · Critical | 26–52+ wks | — |
| Jun 2026 | 4 · Critical | 26–52+ wks | — |
| May 2026 | 4 · Critical | 26–52 wks | — |
| Apr 2026 | 4 · Critical | 26–52 wks | — |
| Mar 2026 | 4 · Critical | — | — |
| Feb 2026 | 4 · Critical | — | — |
| Jan 2026 | 4 · Critical | — | — |
| Dec 2025 | 4 · Critical | — | — |
Latest reading synthesized from: Fusion Worldwide Greensheet · Future Electronics Market Conditions Report · Sourceability Lead Time Report · TTI Lead Time Trends — see methodology.